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Blizzard Reveals Overwatch Loot Box Probabilities – For China

by Matt Bertz on May 05, 2017 at 12:02 PM

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Overwatch fans have a love/hate relationship with Loot Boxes. Before opening each box, we pray like pagans to receive that ever-elusive legendary skin we are saving up for at the moment, and curse when we get another damn Ana spray. Fans have speculated about the probabilities of receiving coveted items even since the game shipped (and even demanded change) but Blizzard has largely stayed quiet on the matter. However, a recent law change in China gives us our clearest view yet of how Blizzard thinks about reward probabilities. 

This month a law went into effect in China that requires all online game publishers to reveal the reward probabilities for their games, as well as publicly post the random draw results so lawmakers can make sure they are playing fair. Blizzard was one of the first companies to comply, sharing the odds on Loot Box drops in Overwatch. Eurogamer sister site Metabomb dug up the information

Each Loot Box contains four items of various rarities (common, rare, epic, and legendary), and if an item is already owned, it is converted into currency. Each loot box has at least one rare, epic, or legendary item. Epic items open, on average, every 5.5 Loot Boxes. Legendary items open, on average, every 13.5 Loot Boxes. 

While this is the Loot Box system in China, Blizzard hasn't revealed whether or not the same principles apply in North America. You can bet that the subreddits will test this theory. 


Our Take
We applaud the Chinese government for holding online game publishers accountable, and wish we had the same oversight on the PC, console, and mobile markets in the United States. We doubt Blizzard is doing something nefarious, but transparency would kill all suspicion for any game that has this kind of reward system.