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Baseball Simulation: How Accurate Are This Year's Baseball Games?

by Andrew Reiner on Jul 08, 2010 at 03:05 PM

Major League Baseball's all-star break is just around the corner, and teams in the hunt are debating whether they should give up the farm to land an ace that can give them the push they need for a playoff birth. Most division leaders are holding on to paltry one to three game leads. If anything, this has been a season filled with surprises.

No sports authority expected to see the San Diego Padres in first place this season, yet they've been there most of the year. No person in their right mind expected Carlos Silva to be dominant, but lo and behold, he's well on his way to having his best season yet. And would you believe the Kansas City Royals are still within striking distance?

Scouts, analysts, and fantasy league stat crunchers must be pulling their hair out right about now. Each year, I simulate the season in any baseball game that hits the market. Outside of telling me that the Yankees have a shot at winning the World Series, most simulations are way off the mark. But in a season that doesn't make sense, how close do the games come? Let's take a look to see how accurate Major League Baseball 2K10 and MLB 10: The Show are in their simulations.

Current Major League Baseball standings:

American League
East Central West
  W-L GB
Yankees 53-31 -
Rays 51-33 1.5
Red Sox 49-36 4
Blue Jays 42-43 11
Orioles 25-59 27.5
  W-L GB
Tigers 46-37 -
White Sox 45-38 1
Twins 45-39 1.5
Royals 39-46 8
Indians 33-51 13.5
  W-L GB
Rangers 50-34 -
Angels 46-41 5.5
Athletics 41-45  11
Mariners 34-50

 

National League
East Central West
  W-L GB
Braves 50-35 -
Mets 47-38 3
Phillies 43-40 6
Marlins 40-44 9.5
Nationals 38-47 12
  W-L GB
Reds 49-37 -
Cardinals 45-39 3
Cubs 38-47 10.5
Brewers 37-48 11.5
Astros 34-51 14.5
Pirates 30-54 18
  W-L GB
Padres 49-35 -
Rockies 46-38 3
Dodgers 46-38 3
Giants 44-40 5
Diamondbacks 32-53 17.5


Major League Baseball Standings According to Major League Baseball 2K10:

2K10's American League
East Central West
  W-L GB
Yankees 49-35 -
Red Sox 47-38 2.5
Rays 43-41 6
Orioles 42-42 7
Blue Jays 42-43 7.5
  W-L GB
Tigers 41-43 -
White Sox 40-45 1.5
Twins 39-45 2
Royals 39-46 2.5
Indians 35-50 6.5
  W-L GB
Angels 52-35 -
Athletics 44-42 7.5
Rangers 42-42 8.5
Mariners 40-44 10.5

 

2K10's National League
East Central West
  W-L GB
Mets 51-34 -
Marlins 46-39 5
Braves 45-40 6
Phillies 45-40 6
Nationals 28-57 23
  W-L GB
Brewers 49-36 -
Reds 43-43 6.5
Cardinals 42-42 6.5
Astros 42-43 7
Cubs 41-44 8
Pirates 37-47 11.5
  W-L GB
Dodgers 46-39 -
Rockies 44-41 1.5
Padres 40-44 5
Giants 40-44 5
Diamondbacks 38-47 7.5


Every team in the AL Central has a losing record, but Major League Baseball 2K10 nailed this division's order. Across the entire league, most teams are too close to .500. On top of this, the National League is way off the mark. So, long story short, if you're a scout in the AL Central, pick up a copy of Major League Baseball 2K10 and simulate the remainder of the season to see how your team fares.

Major League Baseball standings according to MLB 10: The Show:

The Show's American League
East Central West
  W-L GB
Yankees 59-25 -
Rays 45-39 14
Red Sox 45-40 14.5
Orioles 38-46 21
Blue Jays 37-48 22.5
  W-L GB
White Sox 45-39 -
Indians 44-41 1.5
Royals 43-42 2.5
Tigers 42-43 3.5
Twins 36-48 9
  W-L GB
Rangers 51-33 -
Mariners 44-40 7
Athletics 42-44 10
Angels 38-49 14.5

 

The Show's National League
East Central West
  W-L GB
Phillies 47-38 -
Braves 45-40 2
Nationals 43-42 4
Marlins 42-43 5
Mets 37-48 10
  W-L GB
Brewers 46-39 -
Cardinals 42-42 3.5
Cubs 42-43 4
Pirates 40-44 5.5
Astros 40-45 6
Reds 37-49 9.5
  W-L GB
Dodgers 47-37 -
Giants 44-40 3
Diamondbacks 40-45 7.5
Rockies 38-47 9.5
Padres 34-50 11


The Yankees are the best team in baseball...I get it. Outside of this, MLB 10: The Show doesn't get much right. Going into the season, I would say these standings look better than 2K10's (with the Padres in the basement and Cubs being in the hunt), but this year has been anything but normal.

The margin of error found in both games:

National League East
Actual 2K10 The Show
  W-L GB
Braves 50-35 -
Mets 47-38 3
Phillies 43-40 6
Marlins 40-44 9.5
Nationals 38-47 12
W-L GB Diff
45-40 6 -5
51-34 - +4
45-40 6 +1.5
46-39 5 +5.5
28-57 23 -10
W-L GB Diff
45-40 2 -5
37-48 10 -10
47-38 - +3.5
42-43 5 +1.5
43-42 4 +5

 

National League Central
Actual 2K10 The Show
  W-L GB
Reds 49-37 -
Cardinals 45-39 3
Cubs 38-47 10.5
Brewers 37-48 11.5
Astros 34-51 14.5
Pirates 30-54 18
W-L GB Diff
43-43 6.5 -6
42-42 6.5 -3
41-44 8 +3
49-36 - +8
42-43 7 +8
37-47 11.5 +7
W-L GB Diff
37-49 9.5 -12
42-42 3.5 -3
42-43 4 +4
46-39 - +9
40-45 6 +6
40-44 5.5 +10

 

National League West
Actual 2K10 The Show
  W-L GB
Padres 49-35 -
Rockies 46-38 3
Dodgers 46-38 3
Giants 44-40 5
Diamondbacks 32-53 17.5
W-L GB Diff
40-44 5 -9
44-41 1.5 -2.5
46-39 - -.5
40-44 5 -4
38-47 7.5 +6
W-L GB Diff
34-50 11 -15
38-47 9.5 -8.5
47-37 - +1
44-40 3 0
40-45 7.5 +8

 

American League East
Actual 2K10 The Show
  W-L GB
Yankees 53-31 -
Rays 51-33 1.5
Red Sox 49-36 4
Blue Jays 42-43 11
Orioles 25-59 27.5
W-L GB Diff
49-35 - -4
43-41 6 -8
47-38 2.5 -2
42-43 7.5 0
42-42 7 +17
W-L GB Diff
59-25 - +6
45-39 14 -6
45-40 14.5 -4
37-48 22.5 -5
38-46 21 +13

 

American League Central
Actual 2K10 The Show
  W-L GB
Tigers 46-37 -
White Sox 45-38 1
Twins 45-39 1.5
Royals 39-46 8
Indians 33-51 13.5
W-L GB Diff
41-43 - -5.5
40-45 1.5 -6.5
39-45 2 -6
39-46 2.5 0
35-50 6.5 +1.5
W-L GB Diff
42-43 3.5 -5
45-39 - -.5
36-48 9 -9
43-42 2.5 +4
44-41 1.5 +10.5

 

American League West
Actual 2K10 The Show
  W-L GB
Rangers 50-34 -
Angels 46-41 5.5
Athletics 41-45  11
Mariners 34-50 16
W-L GB Diff
42-42 8.5 -8
52-35 - +6
44-42 7.5 +3
40-44 10.5 +6
W-L GB Diff
51-33 - +1
38-49 14.5 -8
42-44 10 +1
44-40 7 +10


Total Margin of Error:
2K10: 156.5
The Show: 184.5

Note: The simulations were conducted using both games' default settings. No trades or free agent signings were allowed.