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Could The PS3 'Win' This Generation?
According to a console-sales forecast from research and consulting firm Strategy Analytics, Sony’s hardware will come out on top by 2013. That bold statement comes from David Mercer, vice president of the digital consumer group, in advance of the firm’s larger report, which is due out early next week.
Strategy Analytics doesn’t discount the Wii’s current popularity but says that it isn’t sustainable. By the end of this year, the firm says that there will be about 76 million of the consoles worldwide, but that sales will decline after 2011. At that point, the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 will surge past those global sales, with the PS3 hitting 127 million units by 2013. By then, the firm says that there will be 103 million Wiis out in the wild.
Looking at a closer timeline, the firm sees the global console-gaming market declining yet again in 2010, after last year’s 6 percent dip. This year, Strategy Analytics sees global console sales of 47.5 million units, which is down about 9 percent. According to the company, the Wii is responsible for the bulk of that decline, since they see sales of the PS3 and Xbox 360 increasing.
As with all predictions, take Strategy Analytics’ word with a grain or two of salt. They’re quick to point out that there are a variety of uncertainties in the gaming industry, including how well people adopt new motion-controllers offered by Sony and Microsoft and whether Sony’s 3D strategy pays off. Three years is a long window for game-industry predictions, too. Wii Fit wasn’t out three years ago, and it’s unlikely that anyone could have anticipated not only its release but the fact that it would go on to sell more than 22 million copies. If the landscape stays relatively stagnant over the next few years these predictions are more likely to pan out. In an industry that continues to deliver surprise after surprise, however, it’s probably not a good idea to rule Nintendo out of the long-term game.
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