Analyst: Wii Sales Deflating, Core Games Are Where It’s At

Despite being the market leader for 2007 and 2008, an analyst believes the Nintendo Wii’s “bubble could be deflating.” Cowen Group analyst Doug Creutz explains that Wii owners plan to buy fewer games this holiday while core PS3 and 360 owners are planning to purchase more.

Cruetz attributes Wii owners’ buckling down of game purchases to the economy, claiming that core gamers are the least likely group to nix games from their budget. This may also have some correlation with the fact that Wii owners tend to own less games on average than gamers who consider the PS3 or 360 their primary console.

"While core gamers who own a Wii own more Wii games on average than casual gamer Wii owners, the average title ownership spread between the two categories of gamers is much lower than it is for owners of Xbox 360 and PS3 consoles," Cruetz tells Gamasutra.

The analyst also mentions that core gamers purchase Wiis simply for playing Nintendo titles such as Zelda and Mario, and thus aren’t playing games by other publishers. This may explain r why games catering to the core crowd, such as MadWorld and House of the Dead: Overkill, perform poorly on the shelves.

"While we believe the Wii is likely to be a drag on overall software sales through the holiday,” Cruetz continues,” the impact should be limited to those publishers which have invested significantly in Wii development, with the biggest negative impact likely to be felt by Electronic Arts, which (unwisely in our view) heavily invested in Wii development for [calendar 2009]."

If the Wii is predicted to drag, then who shall succeed in its stead? Cruetz says that Sony is lined up to outperform the 360. He says that “serious gamers” and PS2-upgraders are more likely to consider Sony’s console than Microsoft’s.

Anyone surprised by this analysis? Anybody see this coming a mile away? Either way, it will be interesting to see the results of this holiday’s industry sales.