The Rookie Report In Madden NFL 13

by Matthew Kato on Oct 05, 2012 at 09:30 AM

All eyes are on this year's crop of starting rookie QBs, including the Colts' Andrew Luck and Redskins' Robert Griffin III. We used Madden NFL 13 to sim forward and get a sneak peak at how these rookies are going to perform in the years to come.

Using the current online roster in an All-Pro Connected Career (with six-minute quarters), we simmed out five years to find out the fortunes of the rookie QBs currently starting for their teams.

Naturally, all this data has to be taken with a grain of salt (and more importantly with a sense of humor) since it's the product of a single sim and not the aggregation of a larger pool. Besides, all of these QBs started all 16 games each season as a starter in the sim – which would never happen in real life.

For more, check out our sim of the entire 2012 season, read my review, and take a look at my strategy guide for Connected Careers.

*Denotes Pro Bowl year as starter

+Denotes Pro Bowl year as an alternate

ROBERT GRIFFIN III

YEAR	RECORD	QB RATING	COMPL. %	PASS. YARDS	TDS	INTS
2012	7-9	93.6	63%	4,127	29	19
2013	6-10	85.2	61%	3,800	23	15
2014*	11-5	103.6	66%	4,324	39	14
2015	8-8	98.5	64%	4,398	32	11
2016*	10-6	99.9	67%	4,318	34	14

As a team the Redskins struggle under RG III for his first two years, although Griffin does a pretty good job individually. In 2014 RG III gets into the Pro Bowl and leads his team into the playoffs for the first time, where the Redskins lose to the Packers in a close game in the Divisional round.
In his fifth year as a starter, RG III goes back to the Pro Bowl and the playoffs, once again losing to the Packers after beating the 49ers in the Wild Card round 27-17.
Robert Griffin III starts out with an 85 Overall rating in his first year, and ends up at 93. He develops into a pocket passer, rushing for just under a 1,000 yards and 7 TDs in the five-year span.

ANDREW LUCK

YEAR	RECORD	QB RATING	COMPL. %	PASS. YARDS	TDS	INTS
2012	8-8	78.7	62%	3,935	26	27
2013	12-4	89.2	63%	3,672	29	16
2014	13-3	103.4	68%	4,161	34	11
2015+	12-4	96.7	67%	4,256	24	7
2016+	6-10	92.3	65%	4,240	24	12

After going 8-8 his rookie season, Luck proves his worth by leading the Colts to a division title. His first playoff opponent that year: Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos. In the duel between the Colts' past and future, Luck has a better statistical day than Manning, but the Broncos beat the Colts, and in the process sack Luck six times.
Luck and the Colts return to the playoffs in the next two seasons, but never get further than the AFC Championship game in 2014, where they are thrashed by the Steelers at home 31-3. That year Luck misses the Pro Bowl despite posting a gaudy 103.4 QB rating, due only to great years by Matt Ryan (on the Broncos!) and Tom Brady.
Luck starts out with an 85 Overall rating, and ends up at 90. Although the Colts have renewed his rookie contract, in 2016 the club goes 6-10. Will Luck bring the Colts back to the playoffs?

BRANDON WEEDEN

YEAR	RECORD	QB RATING	COMPL. %	PASS. YARDS	TDS	INTS
2012	5-11	78.9	58%	4,088	28	24
2013	4-12	70.9	54%	3,612	28	27
2014	10-6	78.7	55%	3,603	23	14
2015	7-9	83	55%	3,248	23	9
2016	7-9	70.3	55%	3,136	19	21

Weeden leads the Browns to the playoffs only once in this five-year sim. In that 2014 Wild Card game he puts up an abysmal 48.6 QB rating in a loss to the rival Steelers. Although Weeden brings some much-needed stability to the position for the Browns, whether he's ultimately the answer remains to be seen.
Weeden starts and ends the sim with an 81 Overall rating, but his record as a starter for the Browns speaks for itself, as does the fact that during the five-year campaign his completion percentage never eclipses 60 percent.

RYAN TANNEHILL

YEAR	RECORD	QB RATING	COMPL. %	PASS. YARDS	TDS	INTS
2012	8-8	80.4	62%	3,114	21	18
2013	11-5	82.2	58%	3,439	31	23
2014	6-10	81.3	57%	3,059	25	13
2015	11-5	92	62%	3,385	25	10
2016	7-9	79	56%	3,599	29	22

The Dolphins' record under Tannehill is up and down. The team ping-pongs between rich and fallow years, winning the competitive AFC East in 2013 and 2015 while posting losing records in the following years. Tannehill posts one playoff win during this span, and leads the Dolphins to the AFC Championship game in 2013. During this game he meltsdown spectacularly, tossing 3 INTs to the Broncos.
Tannehill's Overall rating only rises by one point, from 79 to 80 during the five-year sim, and while posting some competitive numbers, he never breaks into the upper echelon of QBs in the NFL.
At the end of 2016, Tannehill is released by the Dolphins, and he signs with division rivals the Jets. Here he starts ahead of Matt Cassel and third-stringer Mark Sanchez. Where is Tim Tebow? He's the starting QB for the Patriots!

RUSSELL WILSON

YEAR	RECORD	QB RATING	COMPL. %	PASS. YARDS	TDS	INTS
2012	9-7	88	62%	3,481	28	14
2013	8-8	79.9	60%	3,287	24	18
2014	8-8	73.5	57%	3.635	19	21
2015	7-9	91.3	63%	4.402	30	16
2016	9-7	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

The Russell Wilson phenomenon in Seattle never really gets rolling. The team oscillates one game above and below .500 during the sim, and makes the playoffs in 2014 as an 8-8 Wild Card. Here they are smoked by the Packers in Seattle, 38-13. Wilson posts only 85 yards passing, and the only sound from Seattle's vaunted 12th man is the quiet splash of tears.
Wilson's Overall rating rises only one point during the period, from 80 to 81.
At the end of the 2015 season Wilson is released by the Seahawks and signed by the Cardinals as the backup to John Skelton. Following the 2016 season, he is dropped to third on the depth chart when Peyton Manning brings his twilight tour to the desert on a one-year deal.