The 2011 Holiday Showdown

There are a lot of great games coming out this holiday season, and we recently conducted a survey of 5.655 readers to find out what they are looking forward to buying in that timeframe. Take a look at some extra stats and analysis from industry experts to our 2011 Holiday Showdown feature in the September issue (#221).

Nintendo Software Draws Little Interest

None of the Nintendo games were tabbed by readers as being among the most-anticipated games of this holiday season, and the figures were low in general:

• Question: Do you plan on buying The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword before the end of the year?
  • Answer: Yes: 22% No: 78%
• Question: Do you plan on buying Super Mario 3D before the end of the year?
  • Answer: Yes: 12% No: 88%

Unfortunately, this survey was conducted before the 3DS' price drop, so things may indeed change for Nintendo.

EEDAR's Jesse Divnich sees this holiday season as "incredibly crucial" for the company, but sees some things going its way. "Despite the Wii’s console cycle wrapping up, we should expect at least one to two titles placing in the top ten this holiday season. Nintendo has historically outperformed its competitors during the gift-driven holiday season. 3DS sales had a rough start, but I believe the industry is giving Nintendo the benefit of the doubt and waiting through the holiday season before making any final judgment on the platforms potential long-term success."

Likewise, Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter thinks things could come together for Nintendo this holiday season. Speaking about the 3DS (pre-price cut), Pachter said, "The 3DS lineup is enough to get people excited. This holiday you finally get some games you cannot get anywhere else [but on the 3DS]."

A Split Decision

Although there are big name titles that will surely do well, many of those surveyed are split on whether they are going to get some of the marquee games this year.

• Question: Do you plan on buying Assassin's Creed Revelations before the end of the year?
  • Answer: Yes: 47% No: 53%

• Question: Do you plan on buying Batman: Arkham City before the end of the year?
  • Answer: Yes: 56% No: 44%

• Question: Do you plan on buying Battlefield 3 before the end of the year?
  • Answer: Yes: 51% No: 49%

• Question: Do you plan on buying Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 before the end of the year?
  • Answer: Yes: 41% No: 59%

• Question: Do you plan on buying The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim before the end of the year?
  • Answer: Yes: 59% No: 41%

• Question: Do you plan on buying Uncharted 3 before the end of the year?
  • Answer: Yes: 41% No: 59%

Interesting Points To Watch This Holiday Season

Divnich: "We can expect to see tablets making a huge splash this holiday season. While tablets (and anything computer related) are always must have holiday items, I believe that the primary driver of tablet sales this holiday season will be the games. We already know that gaming is a top activity in the mobile markets and with tablets becoming more affordable and the game catalog large enough it is likely to weigh heavily in the consumer decision process. The key question is whether the rise in mobile and tablet gaming will cut into traditional console sales? Absolutely not. One day the technology in the mobile and tablet market will match that of today’s consoles, or at least reach a 'good enough' point, but that isn’t this year, or even next, and as such consumers will still view the mobile and tablet gaming as a bite sized snack of entertainment. If you want the full course meal, you still need to own a traditional console."

Pachter: "I think the big thing to pay attention to is Call of Duty Elite. I think it's going to be fascinating to see if Activision is able to successfully convince its consumers that they are not screwing them by charging for a premium service. I know what they plan to do. I know they plan to handle  this very carefully. I know that they have no intention of taking away the free multiplayer, but there's that perception out there that they are going to somehow dink with people and take away something, and they won't. But I think that whole dynamic is going to be really interesting to watch."