The lights are on
I will never pay to play online, period. I already pay rent, electricity, phone, and internet. Why should I have to pay to play for a service I'm already paying for. Let's not forget that we're going to be purchasing their $450+ system (Estimation) to boot.
I personally do not see Sony taking the route of the Xbox. For one, Sony has Playstation+, which they've said has been a success. You're already paying $49.99 a year for plus. The only reason I enjoy online is because I can get day one digital, and I like to talk with fellow PS users on my friends list. And I could not live without my trophy list.