It seems to be a common theme for analysts and some mainstream writers to start digging a grave for portable gaming. You've read the articles and have either angrily commented or bit your tongue and wondered what was wrong with these people. Perhaps the most egregious offender is this Forbes article, which was published on December 20th. 

The article wastes no time in making a strong point:

"Are we entering the end game for the mobile game console industry? Are the dirt cheap smartphone and tablet games in the process of toppling the entire proud industry based on selling $200 consoles and $40 games? Yeah, pretty much."

The author is being overly negative about the future of dedicated portable gaming, but there are significant changes going on that cannot be ignored. The era of expansion for the dedicated portable gaming market is over, and now the challenge is to keep core consumers on board. There is definitely room for both the iOS/Android gaming and portable gaming markets to co-exist, but sales expectations for portables must be more in line with market realities.

Less spending on portables doesn't mean no spending-- it simply means less. Portables had a stellar run over the last few years, but what was the competition? It's been DS versus PSP, with mobile phones providing makeshift gaming experiences based on licenses and weaker technology. Today, smartphones and tablets are not only competitive with dedicated portable platforms in terms of tech... but they arguably even outperform those dedicated devices and have more varied uses. 

There's also been a notable decline in portable gaming sales in 2011. According to the latest NPD data, portable hardware sales, in dollars, are down 5% versus 2010 numbers. Software sales are down by 10%. This is in spite of a new platform (3DS) being introduced in March and with price cuts for several platforms. Even more telling are the November YOY (Year Over Year) comparisons. Portable hardware was down 21% versus a year ago, although software was down by only 1%. The software number looks better than it really is, however; it was the only category of software in the red. 

The general explanation for the drop has been the proliferation of iOS and Android gaming. Smartphone and tablet penetration has been growing rapidly, and the games are cheaper on average. One needs to only look at the Angry Birds empire for an example of how relevant these cheaper games have become. The Angry Birds IP is seemingly everywhere-- even on the PSP and PlayStation 3. Fruit Ninja, a popular mobile game, made the jump to the Xbox 360 in 2011. Whether core gamers like them or not, these are games... and many people enjoy them. 

When you consider the multipurpose functionality of smartphones and tablets, it becomes obvious why gaming on them has become so popular with users. Why carry separate devices for gaming, productivity, or phone conversations when one device can do them all well? Sure, dedicated gaming devices have better control interfaces, like pads or analog sticks... but if a game is created using the strengths of the technology and the accessibility of a touch-screen interface, why can't it be just as compelling an experience? Having a multipurpose device also saves money on buying "the next platform", too, when they run $170-$300 apiece.

If you're a core gamer, you probably hate reading this, but it's important to remember that core gamers are but a piece of the overall gaming consumer base. More casual game players are no better or worse than you are, and in the eyes of the industry, they're as important a money-making target as you are. 

Having said that, it's also important to note that the core gaming market is also still very important. That market is where all of the early adopters come from. That market lines up at midnight to buy games and hardware, and that market provides some of the word of mouth that interests others outside of their circle. Portable gaming isn't going away, no matter how many analysts or writers say otherwise. As long as there is money to be made, companies are going to want to take advantage of that opportunity. 

What has to happen is a lowering of sales expectations and a recognition of market changes. While iOS/Android gaming won't "kill" the portable gaming market, it will continue to steal at least some of the potential revenue that used to be earmarked solely for portables. There won't be incredibly large sales of 3DS or Vita units like we'd seen for the DS a few years ago, but we will still see numbers that foster a continued presence in the video game marketplace for portables. 

We may see the Vita struggle for awhile until the inevitable price drop, but the 3DS has been showing signs of life over the last few months. Pricing and accessibility will be keys in keeping these platforms relevant as we move through 2012 and beyond, and I honestly believe that these areas will be key areas of focus.

So... buy a 3DS, or a Vita, and don't look on those purchases with fear of irrelevance. Sure, the numbers may not be as brag-worthy as they once were, but portable gaming still has a strong place in the overall hierarchy of a still-prominent industry.