Earlier this month, I posted a column on KmartGamer with some loose predictions for 2012. As we get closer to the year change, I figured that I'd go a bit further out on a limb and make more bold predictions here. If I'm right, I look like a genius. If I'm wrong, I look like Nostradumbass. My prediction correctness ratio for 2011 (from 2010) was about 50%, so that's not a terrible average. 

So... here we go:

1. THQ gets delisted from NASDAQ and becomes a takeover target: I've talked about THQ here before, and the news continues to be poor. Saints Row: The Third and WWE '12 both sold in weaker numbers than some analysts were hoping for, uDraw continues to be a noose around the publisher's neck, and rumors of a cash crunch and possible default on a Wells Fargo credit line in 2012 have investors spooked. THQ stock hasn't been north of $1 since December 8th; if it stays under for $1 for 30 consecutive business days, as I believe it will, NASDAQ (the stock exchange on which THQ is traded) can pursue delisting procedures, which is basically the kiss of death to investors. I believe this occurs and that THQ becomes a takeover target. Closure is an outside possibility, but I think a merger or takeover is more likely. Activision and Electronic Arts are the companies that makes the most sense in bidding for a THQ takeover, but dark horses like UbiSoft and maybe even Bethesda could consider it. The takeover could happen before the end of 2012.

2. PlayStation Vita sells less than 350,000 units in the US at launch, then struggles for 2012: Sales of the Vita in Japan were decent, but not earth-shattering. 321,000 Vita units sold in two days over there, and I think the same scenario happens here in the US. Price point, whether core gamers like it or not, is a major sticking point for the mass market. It's now irrelevant that the Vita was considered to be the better deal at $250 back in June, because now the 3DS and Vita aren't on equal pricing ground any longer. The fact is this: Vita is $250, plus the price of a basically mandatory memory card... while the 3DS is just $170 with no additional accessories required. The average consumer sees value in dollars, not hardware stats. For $250, consumers can buy a 3DS and two games. For $250, consumers still need to spend MORE to get a memory card AND at least a game. Until the price point changes, Vita will struggle in the face of strengthening 3DS sales and the continuation of the iOS/Android boom. I don't see Sony making the same bold price cutting move that Nintendo made with the 3DS, which will make it difficult for Vita to appeal to more than a niche market for the balance of 2012. 

3. Hardware sales for 2012 will show a moderate decline, while software sales will rise: Even with two new hardware platforms launching in 2012, the market won't be quick to move on them. As mentioned above, the Vita will be perceived to be expensive and there's enough uncertainty surrounding the WiiU that it's hard to consider a repeat of 2006 for its launch in the second half of 2012. The decline in hardware sales will also result from Xbox 360 finally closing in on its saturation point; expect YOY comparisons to be off for Xbox 360 hardware sales by about 5-10%. PlayStation 3 sales should be flat or slightly rise in comparison to 2011. The good news is that, with more consumers having at least one of the current-generation consoles in their homes, software sales should rise. Without the expense of adding a new console, consumers will be able to adjust their limited discretionary income expenditures and buy more games.  

4. WiiU launches in September for $349.99: Since I'm going out on a limb with these predictions, I needed to be more specific with this instead of saying "WiiU launches between August and November for at least $300"... so here you go. I don't think that Nintendo has the luxury of waiting to launch the WiiU much later than September because the Wii software slate is relatively bare and stocks are taking a beating. The company needs a jumpstart, and the hope is that a strong E3 re-reveal helps with this. As for the price, I don't see Nintendo being able to sell much less than that early on due to the expense for the WiiU controller and Nintendo's internal expectation to not take losses on hardware. It's a high asking price, and could affect demand, but I don't know that Nintendo has a choice here. They'll have to rely on the games and tech to speak for themselves and put forth a strong marketing push to renew faith in the Wii brand.  We'll see. 

5. No new Xbox or PlayStation launches in 2012, but E3 will show us something: The situation here is very similar to last year at this time, when I knew that Nintendo had a new console being prepped and that we'd see it at E3 this year-- which we did. Chatter has been much too strong to ignore that new Xbox hardware exists, and probably has for some time. Microsoft also knows that Nintendo made a crucial error in waiting too long to have new hardware ready once the Wii reached saturation, as it did in 2010. It makes sense for Microsoft to take the veil off of its new hardware and let people know that it's going to be ready within a year. Sony has been quieter, and is tougher to read. Conventional wisdom says that Sony will have something ready too, but the question is: When will they show it? Will it be reactive if shown at E3? Do they have a special event first? It's a really tough call. What I'm almost certain of, though, is that neither company launches its new platform in 2012. More development time will be needed to ensure that a solid software lineup represents each platform at launch, and that would pin 2012 as being too rushed. Despite declining hardware sales, numbers won't dive enough to necessitate any rash decisions.