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Take Five: November 2011 NPD Observations

Now that we've had a weekend to digest the NPD data for November, it's time to talk about some observations that I took from the numbers. I put together full data and analysis over at KmartGamer, but wanted to do something special here. 

1. Sony Surprise: Going into the release of the numbers last week, there were indicators that Sony might come up short for November. Unlike Nintendo and Microsoft, Sony had been mum on sales data for Black Friday week. There was uncertainty that Uncharted 3 would move hardware. Lots of sales momentum looked to be going Microsoft's way thanks to Modern Warfare 3. These indicators proved false as Sony racked up 900,000 PlayStation 3 units sold for November, which was a 70% increase over last November-- and the best YOY improvement for any platform. Sony should be happy with those gains. What's even more noteworthy is that Sony's YOY performance over the last few months has been quite impressive. Yes, Microsoft has dominated in terms of units sold, but the PlayStation 3 has been outperforming its 2010 sales in the months that matter most. We'll see if this carries over to December. 

2. Nintend'OH!: For the first time in this console generation, Nintendo found itself residing in the basement of the hardware sales rankings. While the Wii made a bit of a comeback as compared to recent months, moving 860,000 units, it was still a 32% decline over last year. As for the 3DS, while defenders are quick to point out that sales are pacing better than the DS in its first year, 795,000 units isn't overly impressive. Between a fairly attractive price point and the release of a new Mario game, it's fair to argue that sales should have been better. The perceived weakness also points to a potential shift in the portable gaming marketplace to iOS devices and tablets, which are multi-purpose and boast cheaper games. It's still possible that the 3DS will sell better in December, with the release of Mario Kart 7, but it's equally possible that Nintendo's run of dominance-- and the run of dominance for dedicated portable hardware for gaming-- may be at an end. 

3. Microsoft Millions: Take a moment to think about how large a number that 1,700,000 is. That's how many new Xbox 360 units were sold in November, and it's nearly double the number of PlayStation 3 units that sold. It's also a number that's almost as many units sold as Wii and PlayStation 3 units sold COMBINED. Regardless of the reasons for Microsoft's continued success, it's impossible to ignore the dominance that the Xbox 360 has exerted over its competition in 2011. This latest set of hardware data is 2011 in a nutshell: Microsoft domination, Sony struggles to keep up, and Nintendo has lost its magic. While another month of over 1.5 million units isn't likely for the 360, another month of over 1 million units sold is pretty likely. 

4. Ubisoft Ups and Downs: Sales of Assassin's Creed: Revelations were stronger than many predicted, moving about 1,260,000 units in the reporting period. That shows me that the Assassin's Creed fanbase is formidable and that UbiSoft is justified in releasing games in the series yearly. Only Modern Warfare 3, Skyrim, and Battlefield 3 outpaced it for the month, and all three games launched earlier than Revelations did. On the flip side for Ubisoft, Rayman Origins was a sales disaster. The platformer sold only 50,000 copies in November, and much of the blame can be given to Ubisoft for its failure. The launch window was too crowded for such a game, the marketing was just a fraction of what Ubisoft threw behind Revelations and Just Dance 3, and it kind of just appeared on store shelves with little fanfare. It's almost as if Ubisoft had no confidence in the game, despite raves from the gaming press. It's a shame at the very least, and a travesty at the worst. 

5. Flat Sales Overall: As the U.S. economy continues to spin its wheels, console video game sales for November reflect the same. Overall, console video game sales were 0.5% LESS than last November, and that's a period when the economy was arguably in worse shape. The news isn't all bad; console video game software was up 15% over last year... and it's likely that sales of over 9 million copies of Modern Warfare 3 had at least something to do with it. It's tough to underperform in a month with so many quality titles available on store shelves. Hardware sales (-9%) and sales of accessories (-34%) were down considerably versus a year ago. These aren't bad trends, necessarily; as we approach the end of this console generation, price cuts chip away at sales totals and more consumers have already bought the consoles they want (also known as penetration). Strong software sales are a good sign, but with flagging hardware sales dollars, it's easy to predict that the next generation of consoles may be closer than we think. 

That's Take Five this time around. Feel free to check out my Armchair Analysis piece on KmartGamer for more insight on last month's winners and losers. 

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