The lights are on
In just a few short hours from now, November's NPD sales data will be released to clients. A press release with more limited information will follow shortly afterwards. NPD day is exciting to analysts-- both professional (like Michael Pachter and Jesse Divnich) and aspiring ones like myself. Today is especially exciting because it's the a holiday period. This usually means big numbers and a but clearer picture of who's winning the retail battle.
Since we have a little bit of time, let's make some predictions, shall we?
Hardware:
I don't think that there's much of a question as to who will top the hardware chart. The Xbox 360 has been dominant in 2011, and with a solid slate of games and continued interest in Kinect, November won't be any different. It's understood that Modern Warfare 3-- which will be the month's best-selling title, going away-- is a multiplatform offering, but most consumers prefer the experience on the Xbox 360. Word of mouth to other consumers spreads, and you have a big sales month on your hands.
The biggest surprise to me is the potentially lukewarm showing for the PlayStation 3. Sony was, curiously, the only company of the "Big Three" not to share Black Friday sales data. That usually doesn't bode well when competition trumpets their own numbers in comparison. It could be that Sony will let its numbers speak for themselves; however, Sony rarely shares raw data outside of NPD client circles. This leads to extrapolation of numbers based on percentages.
The battle for 2nd place, therefore, falls between the 3DS and the Wii. The Wii is selling surprisingly well. The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword may be one reason, but a bigger reason may be the console's affordability and its relatively inexpensive software lineup. The 3DS has risen from the ashes somewhat over the past few months, and it's expected that the release of Super Mario Land 3D will fuel sales a bit more. I'm going with 3DS on a hunch, but it's just as likely that the Wii will take that spot.
Software:
Let's get the obvious out of the way: Modern Warfare 3 is going to dominate for November. Love it or hate it, it sold at a record pace and no other game will come close. The bigger question is what comes next. The safe bet seems to be that Skyrim will be finish in that second slot. Sales appeared to be strong, it came out early enough in the month to carry that strength for more than a few days, and buzz has been strong on it.
Other games to watch for in the Top 10:
When the numbers hit, I'll be analyzing them and posting my Armchair Analysis column over at KmartGamer. If you're interested in reading more about them, I might posted an addendum with some extra analysis here. In the meantime, feel free to leave any comments or questions that you may have... or maybe even your own predictions!
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