I've been talking a lot about THQ on Twitter and Google+ lately, and the news hasn't been good. 

Yes, Saints Row: The Third and WWE '12 has allegedly moved over a million units each this past month. Yes, a new UFC game is due next month. Yes, WWE and UFC fanbases seem to ensure that games with those licenses will never truly fail. Yes, a new South Park game is coming from THQ. 

The problem is that investors, as a whole, don't believe in THQ anymore. THQ stock values plummeted to their lowest level in five years earlier on Wednesday ($1.37) before recovering somewhat. THQ stock has lost over 75% of its value in 2011 alone. Analyst Doug Creutz from Cowen & Company downgraded THQ stock to Neutral from Outperform this week, sending more shareholders for the exits. 

It's not a given that THQ will close in the next 12-18 months, but I do believe that the chances of a possible buyout or takeover are increasing by the week. THQ has had some big misses in 2011 with uDraw and Red Faction. If Saints Row doesn't post fantastic numbers-- especially after the big marketing push and associated expenses-- then confidence will continue to fray. It makes sense for another publisher to swoop in and take over, reaping the rewards of current projects. In the worst-case scenario, other publishers or companies would likely swoop in to pick at the THQ carcass. Volition, as a developer, would probably be one of the biggest targets. 

There's also a chance that nothing changes. We've seen this happen with Atari, whose stock was delisted in 2008 but still hangs on in the industry. Perhaps investor sentiment will turn more positive as Q4 ends and sales data shows improvement. 

As of now, I think that it's wise to watch and see what happens over the next year. Personally, I think that a buyout or closure has a 40% chance of occurring in 2012. We will see.