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Analyst Reveals Next-Gen Predictions

Rumors are coming at a faster clip as we approach the inevitable release of next-gen consoles, and an analyst has added his post-CES predictions to the heap. They include potential price points, release windows, and a surprisingly grim outlook for Nintendo.

Colin Sebastian, an analyst at Baird Equity Research, says he's based these predictions on conversations with developers and distributors.

Sebastian says he expects that Sony and Microsoft will unveil their new hardware shortly before E3, which he predicts will be the biggest show since 2000. The next generation of console hardware will be based on high-end off-the-shelf PC components, which could ease the transition, since developers are likely to be familiar with the basic hardware architecture. These consoles could be priced between $350 and $400, which puts them in line with the 360's initial $399 price point, and the PS3, which had launch configurations ranging from $399 to $599. As Sebastian sees it, we'll be seeing both consoles in stores before the end of the year, possibly in October or November.

The sky isn't necessarily falling for brick-and-mortar retailers, though Sebastian says the wider transition to digital is inevitable. He does say that we'll be seeing a similar sales ratio of digital downloads to physical sales for at least the first few years of next-gen.

He doesn't have much in the way of good news on the Nintendo front. Citing what he calls a lackluster launch, Sebastian conjures up a grim future for the Wii U. He predicts that Nintendo could be forced to cut the console's cost before the company had planned, and that we'll need to see major first-party games such as Zelda on the system soon to prevent it from entering a free fall. In the worst-case scenario, he sees Nintendo farming out its first-party franchises to previously competing platforms.

What do you think? Is this guy on to something, or is he just tossing darts around?

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Comments
  • He's just tossing darts around.
  • Sounds fairly resonable expectations to me, but what do I know, I'm just a gamer ready for a new console.
  • Grim outlook for Nintendo, how original. Don't count on them farming first-party franchises anytime soon. Not sure we'll see consoles released by the end of the year, and I bet they'll cost at least $50 more than he predicted.
  • Most people agree with his Sony and Microsoft predictions. But if the 720 is going to include a Kinect version 2 is every SKU, their price point has to be above 399.

    Nintendo guess is way off
  • I could see this being possible. Aside from the Nintendo guess maybe.
  • "I predict that Microsoft and Sony might release their console before the end of the year and that there may possibly be games released for it at some point shortly afterwards."...Boy being an analyst must be a tough job.
  • I find it hard to believe Nintendo will farm out its franchises to competing platforms anywhere in the near future. Everyone always, always spells doom for Nintendo, and Nintendo always bounces back. The 3DS is selling well, and the Wii U, while not selling amazing, will have all the great franchises that people love soon enough.
  • The next gen will be an interesting one. I want to see lower price points for digital games before I give up on my in store games. Right now I can spend 59.99 for a game and depending on the deal I can trade it in for roughly 20 dollars back (Before you all freak about about trade in prices I am just going with a round number). With that in mind I know that I am buying a full price game for a net expenditure of 39 dollars. Digital games would have to come down to this price point before I am all in. I also don't think Nintendo is in that much trouble but I would LOVE to play Zelda or Metroid on another system.
  • I'm thinking $399.99 and $499.99 for the cost of next gen consoles. either way, I'm buying both like I did this generation.
  • If it gets to the point where Nintendo needs a major first-party hit, then I'd say that's a great time to develop a classic 2D Metroid game for the Wii U. The timing would be right for it.
  • Ech, quoting failure for Nintendo at this point is just weird, wishful thinking.

  • If the analyst is going $399 then I'm going Price is Right on his @ss, and I'm saying $400.
  • i refuse to listen to analysts, but this was an interesting read nonetheless. as for nintendo... lol, they will continue being carried by mario and zelda, until the end of time
  • nintendo giving up exclusives? i have my doubts about that
  • Hmmm...Time to start saving!

  • Nintendo is going to be "farming out" its franchises? This guy is a joke. They have been saying this since the Gamecube era and Nintendo keeps proving them wrong. In fact, that could be why analysis are always doggin Nintendo. Nintendo makes them look like a fool when they get their "predictions" wrong.

    And then he goes off and makes predictions that people could probably figure out themselves, like Nintendo showing off Zelda at E3.

    Also, I love the Zelda series just as much as everyone else but if the Wii U was destined to fail one game would not be able to save the entire life support of a console. To keep a console relevant it needs a constant supply of great games and so far the Wii U has been delivering.
  • How do you give projections on two systems that technically haven't even been announced and don't really exist yet? This is not analysis. What a joke.
  • A bunch of obvious observations that any veteran industry journalist could tell you and all with a dose of run of the mill Nintendo doom and gloom. There is nothing new here. Nintendo needs to get its first party hits on the system soon? Price points will be around $400? Consoles will use off the shelf PC components? Wow, profound stuff. This man is paid a lot of money to give investors advice, digest that people and more importantly remember it the next time you are investing and being given advice.
  • He's off. Given what the Wii U costs, andhow much more powerful Sony and Microsoft's new hardware will probably be, I'd expect them to start at $399 and goes as high as $500. Especially with Sony who doesn't seem at all shy about slapping hefty price tags on their products.

    And Nintendo isn't farming out anything, ever. That's just a wet dream for those hungry to get their hands on Nintendo's most profitable franchises. And if somone can figure out a way to monetize those franchises, why wouldn't Nintendo?

    Sony and Microsoft will probably also offer bundles that range between $450-$600 to make the basic stand-alone consoles seem like a good deal.
  • Reasonable expectations, but I really hope they hold off on releasing the next-gen consoles a little longer. There is still a lot of meat to get to with the current-gen consoles.
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