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Pachter Paints Dire Picture For Nintendo's Console Future

Everyone is excited about the Nintendo 3DS handheld, but Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter is raising questions and fears about the company's long-term strategy in the home console market.

Previously, Pachter believed that Nintendo would be the first of the big three console manufacturers to come out with its next system – even though he thought the next Nintendo system would not stack up technology-wise with the current PS3 and Xbox 360.

Now, in an interview with Industry Gamers, Pachter thinks that Nintendo is too far behind Microsoft and Sony. "With as much respect for Nintendo management as I can muster, I think Nintendo's completely blown it with their second-generation Wii strategy. I think the right strategy would have been to get a second-generation Wii out and keep the old Wii at the same time..."

Pachter thinks that Nintendo's timing is all wrong. "I just think Nintendo's blown it; I think by the time they launch [its next console] if it's Christmas 2011, it's two years too late, and for sure one year too late. So it's over – I don't think they can ever recover." Pachter paints a grim future where a Wii 2 follows the current trend of declining Wii sales, and thinks that the Nintendo's lack of timing puts them in a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" situation. Any new Nintendo console that's either technologically behind or ahead of competitors' consoles will make it hard for third-party publishers to easily support the new system. "If they were going to emulate the 360, which is what I though they'd do, they should have done that in 2009. And if they're going to advance the tech, then 2011 is really not the right year. They're really in between right now."

As judgemental as Pachter sounds, he realizes he's like all of us, and just doing what he can to look into the future. "...Nintendo makes a lot of money, and the management has accomplished a hell of a lot more in their careers than I have. I'm just one guy with an opinion."

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Comments
  • I don't know. With all the hype the 3DS is making, they may cruise through on that alone.
  • Does this guy get all his predictions from fortune cookies? Actually I take that back, that is an insult to the cookie.

    I kid of course.
  • Or they can wait a few years, as the Wii is still selling incredibly well, and release a next-gen system in the same time frame as Microsoft and Sony. Otherwise, they will release a current gen system followed by a next gen system a few years later, which, to me, makes less sense than just waiting to release the next gen system.
  • Nintendo will survive with portable handhelds until the generation of the PS4, and new x-box.  Hopefully then they can make a system that hardcore gamers, as well as 3rd party developers, can take more seriously. While they've made some poor decisions with Wii, I wouldn't throw in the towel just yet.

  • this guy would be without a job if i were his boss....you know if he says the world is going to end in 2012 we will all be just fine.
  • Judging by everything I've heard about it so far, it sounds like the 3DS will be a pretty big deal, but it doesn't sound like Mr. Pachter is taking that into account at all. I guess only time will tell! I personally think Nintendo will keep going strong for quite some time, though.

  • Yes Pachter. You are just one guy with an opinion that nobody cares to believe. You may as well just stop making predictions and let us make our own cuz they are guaranteed to be at least as accurate as yours.

  • Nintendo's problem today is the same problem it has always had - pathetic third-party support compared to its rivals. Now that PS3 and X360 have motion devices out, the Wii is dead weight, especially after Zelda hits. Thankfully, Nintendo still reigns in the handheld department because its console is quickly losing all relevance.
  • Psh for a guy like Pachter to say that Nintendo has totally absolutely blown it with no chance to recover he has a very narrow view of what the company is capable of.

    Fact is, Nintendo has NO DIRECT COMPETITION, yes they are competing against other video game developers, but they are offering something that neither Microsoft or Sony is offering whereas Microsoft and Sony are battling each other for the same audience, by the time they caught up with motion controls Nintendo already has the next thing that no one else has, and I wouldn't be surprised if they have something else they've been developing for years now in addition to what they've already done.

    Nintendo has learned from their history, they battled Sony with the N64 and they had the stronger graphics arguably as well as less loading times and incredible legendary games, it wasn't enough to drastically prosper beyond sony. Nintendo just let Sony and Microsoft compete against eachother while they decided to change their path and take up motion controls, which was an INSANELY risky move creating a system based off of a concept no one had pulled off successfully before, but they did it and reaped the rewards. Now they're doing the same thing again.

    If Sony and Microsoft want to become more prosperous, one of them is going to have to find something that will make their system truly unique against the other, it's a win/win/win/win situation if they can. Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo all increase their profits because the competition between each other is decreased, but still present + more unique games for the consumer. But then again I don't have any business background so I could be totally wrong, just my opinion.
  • Pachter is the biggest tool in the world. Yes Nintendo, release another lackluster system with poor graphics so that you have ANOTHEr console out just for the sake of it.

    I know gamers would much rather get an AWESOME system and wait a few more years

  • I mean, they may be behind but, i wouldn't go as far to say they can NEVER recover. Theres a number of options for them.

  • Yeah, no one's going to want to play any future Mario, Zelda, Metroid, Mario Kart, Pokemon, Punch-Out, or Smash Bros. games anymore. Nintendo done goofed.
  • Personally, I don't buy Nintendo's consoles for their hardware specs(but it's always cool to see what they are going to do to change gaming, eg. motion controls and glassesless 3d). I buy their stuff for their first-party releases and as long as they keep making good Marios and Zeldas(especially Zeldas) and continue with some quality third-party support (Kirby) I will continue to be their customer.
  • I wish nintendo had HD,think of all the games that would look amazing in HD.

    Though I don't think that they'll NEVER recover,they made LOTS of cash from the wii so just because sales are down does'nt mean its the end,just about everyone I know has a wii.
  • I don't know who he thinks he is but I think he's forgetting that this is Nintendo.  I may agree with him that they're a little late on releasing a new console but I have a lot of faith in Nintendo.  They somehow manage to magically make everyone really excited every time they release a new console or handheld, so I don't think they're in any kind of trouble.  Especially because the 3DS is going to be huge.

  • With as much respect for Patcher as I can muster, I think Patcher's completely blown it, with his predictions. I don't think anyone is going to listen to him anymore.
  • It's core nintendo fans, yes they still exist, who are going to continue to be screwed by nintendo unless they decide to just wait til the next generation of consoles when they can catch up with microsoft and sony technologically. Just wait til the next generation, why not?

  • I'm skeptical to see how successful the 3DS will be with the hefty price tag alongside it. You could easily just get a xbox 360 or for a bit more a PS3. Why bother with a handheld at that price tag, even if it is 3D?

  • Any chance they're planning on skipping a generation or doing what they did with the 64 expansion pack?  Also, who are we kidding; the number of games that have been ported between the Wii and PS3/360 is virtually 0, at least for quality games.

  • Sometimes it seems like im the only person that thinks that Pachter actually makes pretty good observations. The predictions that he makes are not without basis. Clearly he cant be right every time, but he does make good observations that the companies should pay notice to.
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