The lights are on
According to a console-sales forecast from research and consulting firm Strategy Analytics, Sony’s hardware will come out on top by 2013. That bold statement comes from David Mercer, vice president of the digital consumer group, in advance of the firm’s larger report, which is due out early next week.
Strategy Analytics doesn’t discount the Wii’s current popularity but says that it isn’t sustainable. By the end of this year, the firm says that there will be about 76 million of the consoles worldwide, but that sales will decline after 2011. At that point, the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 will surge past those global sales, with the PS3 hitting 127 million units by 2013. By then, the firm says that there will be 103 million Wiis out in the wild.
Looking at a closer timeline, the firm sees the global console-gaming market declining yet again in 2010, after last year’s 6 percent dip. This year, Strategy Analytics sees global console sales of 47.5 million units, which is down about 9 percent. According to the company, the Wii is responsible for the bulk of that decline, since they see sales of the PS3 and Xbox 360 increasing.
As with all predictions, take Strategy Analytics’ word with a grain or two of salt. They’re quick to point out that there are a variety of uncertainties in the gaming industry, including how well people adopt new motion-controllers offered by Sony and Microsoft and whether Sony’s 3D strategy pays off. Three years is a long window for game-industry predictions, too. Wii Fit wasn’t out three years ago, and it’s unlikely that anyone could have anticipated not only its release but the fact that it would go on to sell more than 22 million copies. If the landscape stays relatively stagnant over the next few years these predictions are more likely to pan out. In an industry that continues to deliver surprise after surprise, however, it’s probably not a good idea to rule Nintendo out of the long-term game.
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Here's hoping.
kinda funny how this post is labeled with the Wii and 30 icons (as of this typing). as for this forecast, it's kind of cool. i already have my PS3, so i'm happy either way.
i disagree. the best console is the 360
It wouldn't surprise me.
I have often thought that once the PS3 smoothed some things out for consumers, it would hit the fan. Those things include:
-Stellar exclusive games
-good online service
-more games in general
-features taking advantage of blu-ray
I think that those concerns people had are now being fixed, the online service is hardly distinguishable from XBL anymore, and with more and more awesome games coming out on PS3, along with it's free features and services, is a win-win. Morale of the story: GO OUT AND GET A PS3 LIKE EVERYONE ELSE!!
DS will destroy Playstation in a massive storm of tiny consoles... they are already in part 6 of their 10-part-plan to control mankind... and no one even realizes it.
360 for life, the only game i'm planning to buy is god of war3, thats it.
I think Sony will definitely win this generation in the long run.
I'm still trying figure out why people even keep including the Wii in the current generation console war. I only see the PS3 and X360 as competitors. The Wii is so *** different when it comes to the audience it's aiming for and its games that it just doesn't make sense to me to compare it to the PS3 and 360. It has its own lane.
lets go PS3!
I'm not sure if PS3 can pass up 360's installed base in the states, but I think they definitely have more continuing momentum & that in the big picture, it's cost them less to get there (not sure which console was being sold at a bigger loss, but MS' RRoD issues had to cost them quite a bit of $ and favor).
Wii puts up impressive numbers, but as the analysis firm in this article says, I don't see that momentum being sustainable- it was definitely not impossible to find Wiis in stores this last holiday, as it had been in years previous. I think at some point PS3 and Wii probably reach the saturation point in the Japanese market, but PS3 has a lot of room (and potential) for growth in the Western markets.
I don't see 360 having that much further growth in terms of console sales, but I think it will keep brining in $ with software sales from the installed base that it's already established. Detractors will point out with RRoD that those #s are inflated in terms of unique owners, but I think the real #s are between the estimates of those detractors and MS' PR peep's #s. I have had RRoD and other repair issues, but have yet to buy a new console and I suspect there are others out there that had a similar alignment of good luck and good sense saving them from having to shell out for a new unit (though mine is not actually the same one I started with).
But you know who actually wins? We as the gaming public. Now is a fantabulous time to be a video gamer, whichever side of console/PC market you take (or don't). So many great games coming out, and such a backlog of amazing games that slipped through the cracks. My only complaint is there aren't enough hours in the day, week, or even month to get to everything.
@Weird Dave
I agree with you 100 percent. I've never been much of a console warrior, since I end up getting anything anyway. I probably spend more time on my 360 overall, but the PS3's exclusives are second to none.
I think this is possible, Blu-Ray is going to be the next thing like DVDs were from VHS. Sony just had a bad launch by shoving this new Technology into the world that developers didnt really know at the time how to get the full potential out of Blu-Ray, but now everyone knows how to use it efficiently its going to take over and the PS3 would be on top.
Oh and if they just stop making bad decisions and stop thinking about what THEY want and starting thinking about what WE want they would be doing more than well, like not having a lot of amazing exclusives so people would go buy their console cause this game is out for it, or this BS for 3D gaming, there only thinking about THEM not us, No one is going to bother with 3D gaming cause no ones going to ware stupid glasses to look even more like a nerd while playing a game.
That would be a hell of a comeback story.
I have both 360 and PS3. My 360 collects dust as I still dont want to "pay" for online services... and in addition I only purchased the 360 to play mass effect and Im finding that both mass effect2 and left for dead 2 will be probably purchased on PC now. Ill be selling my 360 soon..if it still works.
I have been saying this since 2008, its the natural progression of things.
Its apparent to the general public now that the PS3 is the higher powered more capable system, and its now the same price. Top that off with all of Sony's exclusives that are industry leading, and it becomes obvious.
Well with the PS2 being the best-selling console of all time lets hope the ps3 can try and do the same
No offense to those who have a 360, I have both and I say that tech-wise, PS3 is much better, online wise, 360 is much better, but who the winnder is if Natal can be as good as it looks, or if ps3 keeps making great games this year only time will tell, I love boths consoles, but exclusives Ps3 wins, and graphic wise it wins also, I'm not a fanboy of PS3 but I love both systems and the Wii also, but its very possible that with all of the new games for release are coming out for 360, it might win...
3 years from now? Well I would hope that the next generation will be out by then considering that the 360, Wii, and PS3 were all out by 2006...7 years before a new system comes out is a very long time. If it takes that long for a system to get to the "top" then I wouldn't be bragging about it.
I truly hope so.
The PS3 has so much potential and it's good to see gamers finally giving it a chance.
I have had mine for two years and have loved every minute of it.
The more hype the system gets just means that more developers will want to make games for it.
I'm really happy to see the base of PS3 owners growing more than the other systems.