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Analyst: Wii Sales Deflating, Core Games Are Where It’s At



Despite being the market leader for 2007 and 2008, an analyst believes the Nintendo Wii’s “bubble could be deflating.” Cowen Group analyst Doug Creutz explains that Wii owners plan to buy fewer games this holiday while core PS3 and 360 owners are planning to purchase more.

Cruetz attributes Wii owners’ buckling down of game purchases to the economy, claiming that core gamers are the least likely group to nix games from their budget. This may also have some correlation with the fact that Wii owners tend to own less games on average than gamers who consider the PS3 or 360 their primary console.

"While core gamers who own a Wii own more Wii games on average than casual gamer Wii owners, the average title ownership spread between the two categories of gamers is much lower than it is for owners of Xbox 360 and PS3 consoles," Cruetz tells Gamasutra.

The analyst also mentions that core gamers purchase Wiis simply for playing Nintendo titles such as Zelda and Mario, and thus aren’t playing games by other publishers. This may explain r why games catering to the core crowd, such as MadWorld and House of the Dead: Overkill, perform poorly on the shelves.

"While we believe the Wii is likely to be a drag on overall software sales through the holiday,” Cruetz continues,” the impact should be limited to those publishers which have invested significantly in Wii development, with the biggest negative impact likely to be felt by Electronic Arts, which (unwisely in our view) heavily invested in Wii development for [calendar 2009]."

If the Wii is predicted to drag, then who shall succeed in its stead? Cruetz says that Sony is lined up to outperform the 360. He says that “serious gamers” and PS2-upgraders are more likely to consider Sony’s console than Microsoft’s.

Anyone surprised by this analysis? Anybody see this coming a mile away? Either way, it will be interesting to see the results of this holiday’s industry sales.

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Comments
  • Core Gamers FTW

  • Never been a big fan of the Wii. I have been waiting to see when its sales would start to drop. PS3 ALL THE WAY

  • O YEA

  • i sold my wii because i bought 50 dollar games and i played them for like a week or less...xbox has better quality and more mature games

  • I hope this isn't the end result of all innovative ideas within this industry.  When people see this it can only enforce their decision to only make sequals and to drop support for upcoming game peripherals.

    Lets hope this isn't a sign that the industry will start slowing its progress to new ideas.

    Also, PS2 upgraders more likely to upgrade to a PS3?  Gee, who would have thought.

  • I knew this would happen that the wii sales would drop and the PS3 sales would increase

  • I don't see why any core gamer would consider the PS3 over the Xbox360, Xbox live proved that it was the better online service when the MW2 launch crashed Playstation Network servers while XBox live handled 2million+ people easily. Plus the interface is more intuitive.

  • I'm of two minds. I can't deny that Nintendo putting most of their eggs in the casual basket wasn't the most visionary move in the long run. They simply failed to foresee changing economic factors.

    On the other hand, to argue that the Wii has not graced us with some must-play first-party titles is just silly. I am a lifelong Nintendo fan, and it would be immeasurably sad to see Nintendo claw their way back to the top only to be felled a few feet short of the summit. This may be largely Nintendo's fault, but if your fond gaming memories were mostly provided by the Big N, that doesn't make it any less sad.

  • This is not surprising news at all. I hated the Wii when I first read about it and never had any intentions of purchasing it. I own both the Xbox360 and the PS3 and love both systems but prefer my PS3. I couldn't be any happier to hear that the PS3 is expected to do much better as far as sales go.

  • I for one haven't bought a single Wii game since Brawl, on release day. I just can't find a Wii game to buy that I want instead of a PS3 one.

  • Yeah, Nintendo forgot about who made them this big in the first place, and now they're finally paying the price for it.

    Amen.

  • Wow, somebody is a fan of sony. last time I looked wii console sales were more than the combined totals of the other consoles, is somebody going to sell 30 million consoles this year? btw, wii owners would buy more 3rd party stuff if they would give us something besides shovel ware. I pride myself on not being a fanboy, but this survey is ignoring the facts. fact 1: sony would need a 1 year sales bonanza just to get close to wii sales. I believe the bubble they spoke of can be more akinned to market saturation than deflation. and the economy thing happened over a year ago, what moron really thought that that was connected?

  • @Romars

    "The economy thing" is still happening; it wasn't a singular event that happened on a specific day. It's not as bad, maybe, as it was, but there are still plenty of people for whom money is tight enough that if they have to choose one thing to axe, it'll be games.

  • wii is only for nintendo titles that it.

  • If some third party companies would stop giving up on the Wii and actually make a good game for it.  Then it'd crush every system.  

  • PS3 FTW lol im sure ima catch hell for that lol

  • Nintendo needs to increase the quality of games released for Wii. The only reason I would buy a Wii is to play games like Super Smash Bros, Mario Kart, Twilight Princess, etc. All the games I see not developed by Nintendo are mediocre compared to the 360, or even PS3.

    I plan on buying a 360 because of 1) the reliability of Live, 2) exclusive 360 titles like Halo, and 3) the "pro" feel that comes along with it. The Wii is a very casual system, where as the 360 is a system that I'll be satisfied with after many hours of play.

  • XBOX 360 All the way! Wii just *** it up with the wii offering no HD, so sorry for them!

  • Im on my 4th xbox 360 right now and had to pay for all of them, im getting a ps3 when this one breaks.

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