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Editorial: Is the Wii U Doomed?

At last week's Develop Conference in Brighton, England, industry analyst and managing director of equity research at Wedbush Securities Michael Pachter once again stated his skepticism regarding Nintendo and its upcoming Wii console. "I don't think they [Nintendo] suck," he told Edge, "I just think that they really believe that, 'If we're still novel, everything we do will work.' This isn't going to work."

Pachter is known for straight-talking opinions, and has not shied away from detailing how he thinks Nintendo has erred with its approach to the Wii U. At the Develop Conference, Pachter elaborated that he thinks that the hardcore crowd will buy the system simply because it says Nintendo on it, and that the company wouldn't strike lightning twice between the Wii and the Wii U. "I don't think they're getting lucky with Wii U." he said.

He also questions the console's basic design and fuctionality. "I think that essentially this is a solution in search of a problem," said Pachter. "I mean, somebody had an idea – 'Let's make the controller a tablet' – and there aren't many games that are going to take advantage of that."

Is Pachter's doomsday prediction for the Wii U correct?

Despite the obstacles in front of it and the valid criticisms of the company, I disagree with Pachter in that I think Nintendo has a chance of success with the Wii U.

First, one important factor in the Wii U's success or failure which not even Pachter knows yet is its price. The Wii's low price was instrumental to that console's success in this console generation, and I think that the attractiveness of the Wii U's features and the platform as a whole depends on how much it costs.

To be clear, it's not going to be easy – especially after the embarrassing job the company has done marketing the system the past two E3s – but the platform's functionality could be sufficiently attractive not because it's new and sexy, but because it falls in line with current trends. The Wii U's touchscreen, remote and interoperable gameplay options, and Nintendo's stated commitment to improve its online functionality fall in line with the trending usage habits of many potential buyers.

I think the Wii U's features are better served in other platforms, but I'm sure there is a segment of the population (apart from the hardcore that Pachter mentioned) that doesn't have a smartphone, a tablet, and either an Xbox 360 or a PS3 who could see the Wii U as enough of a ubiquitous device to consider it quite attractive.

Similar to Pachter, however, I question Nintendo's overall thinking. The company has historically had problems attracting strong and sustained third-party software support for its recent systems and so far I don't see that changing with the Wii U. Instead, Nintendo continues to build the systems first and worry about support later.

The Wii U's Pro Controller helps in more traditional gameplay experiences, but with the Wii U Nintendo still appears to be playing catch-up to the content on the PS3 and Xbox 360, and the console could find itself stranded between two generations when Microsoft and Sony release their next systems.

Could this work? Nintendo has always found a way to survive if not thrive with consoles and decisions that many of us in the industry scoff at – myself included. Both Pachter and I would be the first to admit that we've been wrong in second-guessing Nintendo, and it looks like that is going to have to happen again if the Wii U is to succeed.

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Comments
  • I thought the Wii was doomed, but I'm optimistic about the Wii U.
  • All I know is, day one purchase for me. And I don't think they're going for support later-they're going for it now, and getting games that have come out before on 360 an PS3 to show they are committed to similar titles in the future. Developers seem to like it also-Gearbox has said the Wii U version of Colonial Marines will be the best, and they said Borderlands 2 could work well on it also.
  • ' "I think that essentially this is a solution in search of a problem," said Pachter.' Clean UIs have been a goal of games since their inception-this allows the cinematic/immersion of games like Alone in the Dark, RE, etc, while still allowing the player easy access to all information they need. Do we need an entire console devoted to this concept? Not really, but did we really need remote waggling or dual screen handhelds? I think he's being a bit silly deeming -this- as the one time Nintendo's novelty won't work (though the Virtual Boy needs to be brought up in this conversation). The WiiU may not completely change the face of interacting in games, but it seems like it could definitely have some nice innovations.
  • It will do just fine mark my words.
  • My prediction is that it will be like the 3DS, it will start off slow but gain ground as games start releasing. I think there is a chance that it could be a hit out of the park, depending on the familiarity of the Wii name with people. I just want to stay positive here. I never liked Pachter because he always seemed to me like the industry's biggest pessimist.
  • The price will make a big difference, however, this is not a next-gen console and people aren't going to treat it as a next-gen console. It will be compared to the 360 and PS3 and frankly, it's not that much better. And the fact is, on launch day, the Wii was $250 which is the current price of a PS3. The Wii U is going to be more expensive that the Wii was. Nintendo said that themselves. So you'll end up paying more money for a system with fewer games and slightly better capabilities. Why would anyone do that?
  • I think it will depend on price.
  • The damn console hasn't even come out yet! Seriously!!?
  • I dont know how it will be turning out. I don't hate the Wii U, I just think it will fall in the same place the Wii currently is. I probably won't be buying one.
  • One of the things you have to understand is people are not analysts. We do not look at systems the same way business people do. In the end, Mr. Pachter has been historically hard on Nintendo, with no provocation or reason. He seems to have a personal, though informed, bias against the company that has consistently saved gaming from itself. That aside, I think Wii U is going to be just fine. I'm looking forward to it. I had doubts when they showed Wii's specs, but I was proven wrong right from the first gun. And don't start with shovelware. Every successful system in the history of the entire world has shovelware. Why should Wii or Wii U be any different?
  • I've already put $100 toward it on Amazon. I can't wait for the Wii U.
  • I have both the Wii and 360 so at times there are games I want for both systems but I do have a limited budget. What kept me from moving to the Wii so many times was the controller. I know the controller was becoming more accurate but some games were required to use it and I never gained enough trust with the controller to want to use it longer than an hour or two before craving a traditional controller, which I never had to experience that problem with the 360. With the Wii U I understand that Nintendo wanted a stronger third party support which was shown off at E3 but it's hard to want to buy it based off third party when I can already get the same games it advertized on my current xbox without spending more money on a new system. 1st party will always be great for Nintendo but I also want to see what new third party experiences will show up on the Wii U that really says that it is the "it" game to own and Zombie U has shown that yet
  • Let's be honest, no matter what, it's just not going to fail. It just won't happen. Just look at the Wii and how well it did. If this is a marked improvement on several fronts, it'll be crazy successful.
  • Matt, I really have to agree that the price is whats going to deem its success. If I remember correctly they said it would be affordable, but what's affordable when you have a console AND a tablet, both are expensive on their own. I'm hoping to buy Wii U opening day if it's under $350-$400.

    While I'm not completely on board with their decisions to add already made third-party games (i.e. Mass Effect 3, Batman AC), I hope they can pull through and add some third-party support besides Ubisoft. With the small line-up being released opening day, I think it will start sluggish but as more and more companies add on their games to the selection, it will prove to be a tough competitor.

    I'm optimistic about this console, and if they can incorporate the Wii U tablet as more than just a paper weight (I'm not being offensive) that I check to find out where I am on the map they will be able to pull this off.

  • apparently the next article after this doesnt exist

  • "I think that the attractiveness of the Wii U's features and the platform as a whole depends on how much it costs." I completely agree. I think it's very important that it launches at $350 or less. At least that's what it will take to have me interested. Still, I imagine I will wait until a new Zelda, 3d Mario, Donkey Kong or Metroid.
  • Oh, Pachter. Ever the drama queen. Personally, I'd think twice about second-guessing Nintendo. Despite a lot of lukewarm attitudes about the Wii, they still managed to dominate the console market in terms of sales. The Wii U may have more potentially hazardous variables, but I just can't see it bombing.
  • Wii U's life: month 1-6: Ah yeah new wii! month 6-9: Oh, none of my friends have wii u's... month 9-?: I wanna xbox 720/p34!
  • I agree that the price will be one factor in this, but it will not fail. If Nintendo doesn't release enough games from the start, they'll just have the same problems like they did with the 3DS. Other than that, this will be a great console since it does have the capabilities for great graphics. If people were to compare it to a PS3 or 360, then that will be their biggest mistake. So far, Nintendo hasn't failed completely. They just need to show a different side of the console.
  • Nah I think the WIIU will do just fine.
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